Braves-Astros Preview

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Posted: Tuesday October 05, 1999 01:15 PM

By Stephen Cannella, Sports Illustrated

Edges Hitting: Astros A fearsome lineup if Biggio, Bagwell, Caminiti and Everett are all clicking -- a big if Starting Pitching: Braves It gets no better than Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Millwood Bullpen: Braves Houston has Wagner but little depth; led by Remlinger, McGlinchy and Rocker, the Braves' 'pen was one of the NL's best Defense: Even Both teams have their stars -- Biggio, Andruw Jones -- but overall neither defense is spectacular Bench: Astros Injuries forced Astros to spread around the at bats; a deep and experienced bench is the result Manager: Even Calm, cool and unconventional, both Cox and Dierker kept their ships steady during very stormy seasons

The BRAVES will win if : Chipper Jones, who almost single-handedly hauled the team to the NL East title in September, gets some help at the plate. Houston's starters are smart enough not to let Chipper beat them; centerfielder Andruw Jones, the sore-wristed Brian Jordan or first baseman Ryan Klesko will have to provide the pop if Chipper spends the series walking to first base.

The ASTROS will win if : Shane Reynolds and Jose Lima return to their pre-September form. Reynolds (16-14, 3.85 ERA) obviously tired down the stretch, going 0-3 with an 8.60 ERA in his final three starts and losing seven of his last nine decisions. Lima finished with 21 wins but also seemed to lose a little sharpness in the season's final month. Reynolds -- who will probably get two starts if the series goes five games -- and Lima have to turn in quality starts and give closer Billy Wagner a chance to slam the door for the Astros, who don't figure to generate much offense against the Braves' pitching.

Don't be surprised if : The Braves' bullpen, the team's Achilles heel in past postseasons, is the deciding factor in this series. Houston's top three starters match up as well as can be expected against Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. If games are close in the seventh and eighth innings, lefthander Mike Remlinger and righthander Kevin McGlinchy give Atlanta a better chance of getting a lead to its dominant closer (John Rocker) than the Astros' weaker 'pen has of getting one to theirs (Wagner).

X Factor : Carl Everett. The Houston centerfielder (.325, 25 HR, 108 RBIs) had a breakout year at the plate and picked up the slack left by Moises Alou's absence. He has to do the same in the playoffs, especially since Jeff Bagwell (career .115 average in the playoffs) and Craig Biggio (.130) have struggled in the postseason. If Bagwell and Biggio break out of their playoff funk, Everett can be the extra bat that puts the Astros over the top; if they don't, Everett may have to carry the offense.

Prediction : Braves in five.

Sports Illustrated staff writer Stephen Cannella will be contributing regularly to CNNSI.com throughout the playoffs.

 

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